SHOULDA, COULDA, WOULDA: Oscar Picks 2004

Shoulda:

Most insiders will tell you that the race comes down to Penn and Murray. While Law is the most believable and captivating presence in Cold Mountain, there are several actors I could see taking Kingsley’s place in a heartbeat (as you will see). Penn has hit the peak of his career in terms of his choice in characters and the mature control of his abilities. His roles in both River as well as 21 Grams reflect that. As a fan of Murray, whether doing blatant comedy or in more subtle “respectable” roles, I feel an award is long overdue. Murray was robbed of a nomination six years ago for Rushmore, and with the role of Bob Harris he takes a similar character to another level. You can bet the academy will agree come the 29th.

Coulda:

Much has been debated over why it is harder for comedy to gain more respect than drama. But not only does Depp receive this nomination for a comedy, but a comedy based on a theme park ride and produced by Jerry Bruckheimer. I do not know how this happened but I think he would be a fantastic choice if only for the sheer novelty. It’s absurd that a career as notable and impressive (omitting a couple bombs here and there) as Depp’s would not have afforded him a nomination up till now. Even more absurd is that this day of Oscar reckoning came from his Captain Jack Sparrow, who will live in infamy in all veins cult and camp (and whenever the twain so often meet). Do I actually think he “should” win? Yarrr!

Woulda:

In no particular order: Viggo Mortensen for Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, Peter Dinklage for The Station Agent, and Paul Giamatti for American Splendor are all deserving of nods.

Shoulda:

I remember the days when the mention of a Baldwin would be synonymous with “hottie.” Makes a person feel downright old. Baldwin was the most engaging part of The Cooler, even beside perpetual sad sack William H. Macy. Watanabe was fine; the movie was not. Hounsou perpetuates the “doomed black man as savior” character with every ounce of his screen time. There is, however, something about Robbins’ portrayal of Dave that just sticks with you even when he is not on screen. You feel actual pain for the horrible life this guy has led. His performance seamlessly utilizes elegant restraint while allowing the eyes to show the anguish of his ill-fated soul. In a hard-to-call category, I’d say the Oscar goes to Robbins.

Coulda:

Speaking of the “ill-fated,” Del Toro’s modern Job in 21 Grams is so sublimely excruciating to watch that you wonder how the actor recovered between takes. Time after time, Del Toro can do no wrong (except, of course, in Excess Baggage, yeesh).

Woulda:

If only one actor out of the Rings cast should have been placed above the others, it has got to be Sean Astin. Even if you do not take into account the character progression in the previous installments and consider ROTK as a stand-alone piece, it is still clear that the fat hobbit is the hero of the whole trilogy. Jackson knew it, fans knew it, but voters must have thought it was just another feat of CGI wizardry.

Shoulda:

The roles for women this year were more varied, which subsequently has made this category more diverse. Keaton was lovely in the “old is still beautiful” chick flick. Morton was her typically mesmerizing self as mother and protector. Watts dug into her character with enough force to stand toe to toe with the imposing Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro. And though Castle-Hughes is the youngest female nominee in Oscar history, the level of maturity in her performance far surpasses any ageist preconceptions. But truly, the next Best Actress winner in a long tradition of pretty people taking ugly roles for Oscar bait is Charlize Theron. Her portrayal felt natural, not just because of the fantastic (and curiously not nominated) make-up, but because Theron hit something altogether human behind the monster. I can’t imagine anyone else receiving this award.

Coulda:

(see 'shoulda').

Woulda:

Coming from two nominations at the Golden Globes, and several critic circle wins, I find it astounding that Scarlett Johanssen was snubbed for her roles in either Lost in Translation or The Girl With a Pearl Earring. I would have liked to see at least a nod for Translation; the movie is based around these two characters. How can one be nominated and not the other? Without the quiet performance of Johanssen, Murray would not have been able to shine.

Shoulda:

Why Clarkson was nominated for this stock role and not for her far superior turn in The Station Agent is beyond me. Hunter was the best part of that overrated after school special. Aghdashloo was solid, but her nomination is still shocking. Zellweger, well, how should I put this? Zellweger’s spunky. Ruby was a little bit of a stretch in terms of the actual character in the book. It is one thing to pretend to be British, but an entirely different thing to play a role when there are plenty of African American woman who could have played the hell out of it. I still think she will win, but come on!

Coulda:

Any time Harden is on screen I just believe in her confusion and heartache. Her character has a back-story to which the audience is never privy, but by just looking at Harden you feel it come through agonizingly.

Woulda:

Without a question Hope Davis should have been nominated for American Splendor, and would have won. For Pekar (Giamatti) and Joyce’s first date scene alone, this should have been her award.

Shoulda:

In a year where documentary has become the “in” genre, non-fiction is truly more interesting than fiction. Any and all are deserving but I feel it is between already acclaimed Balseros and respected documentarian Errol Morris’ The Fog of War. Balseros is an incredibly depressing look at Cuban refugees and has already picked up the top honors from the International Documentary Association. Fog of War utilizes talking head style interviews (thanks to the handy-dandy interrotron which allows the speaker to talk directly to the camera) in a way that makes you forget the cliché. Even those with little knowledge of McNamara and his effect on America can become engaged in his rendition of several pivotal occurrences in our country’s history. Ultimately, I think Fog has more of the typical Oscar trappings (it briefly mentions World War II, in fact) and will beat out Balseros.

Coulda:

Though it has been six months since I last saw Capturing the Friedmans, I am still not sure of what truly happened in that house. The events in question are still being dealt with in court, and many of the victims are protesting the documentary’s nomination. I do not foresee a win, but I do recommend the DVD and its extras highly.

Woulda:

There is nothing more heartbreaking for a director than to see their picture disintegrate without being able to save it. Thus is the entertaining conceit and wonderful caught on film voyeurism of i. Not only do you see the brilliantly mad Terry Gilliam at work, but also how independent film is at the mercy of the elements (literally and figuratively).

Shoulda:

Finding Nemo will win and forever be a classic.

Coulda:

The Triplets of Belleville will skip to being a classic. Though I would love to see Madame Souza and the Triplets do an impromptu jazz session with an Oscar and an ingénue’s jutting rib cage.

Woulda:

Are you kidding? I wonder why they even need a third.

Shoulda:

You try to adapt source material as dense as Tolkien and come out with a crowd pleasing epic. Power to the kiwis!

Coulda:

American Splendor. As clever and twisted as anything Charlie Kaufman has concocted, this dark comedy/ documentary/ bio-pic/ animation is a rare and original piece. Oscars are unpredictable, at best. If any script deserves to beat the King, it is Splendor.

Woulda:

It would have been nice to see Girl With a Pearl Earring in this category. However, even I concede that the extraordinary visuals (the stunning use of Vermeer-like light and art direction), are more impressive than even the film’s source material verbalized.

Shoulda:

True, every good movie begins with a good script. But with Lost in Translation I truly feel that all the majesty was in the directing rather than in what was actually said. The entire film could have been silent and it would have been just as affective. This award will go to Coppola because she will not get director.

Coulda:

Pixar has a band of some of the most clever writers and animators since, well, ever really. Family friendly, certainly, but Finding Nemo is also one of the most entertaining films of the year.

Woulda:

The plot of The Station Agent starts off as the set up to a bad joke: a dwarf, a woman and an endearing simpleton walk into a train depot. It ends up being a fantastically character driven piece on the necessity of friendship, with a script as original as it is rich with subtext.

Shoulda:

Meirelles made a stunning and poignant classic. Weir made the best, most historically accurate movie of its kind. Eastwood brought Greek tragedy into the Boston suburbs with grace, even if the last bit fell apart. But what you cannot forget is that Jackson IS The Lord of the Rings. Without him being awarded alongside his film, this category is a joke. A DGA (Directors Guild of America) award doesn’t hurt either.

Coulda:

Coppola said it best when she remarked that this movie will hopefully make people forget, maybe for a little, about her father. Though it’s hard to make Tokyo not look stunning, Coppola delivered more than a postcard. Her film taps into a traveler’s isolation, and the important, infinitesimal occurrences in life that change everything. Because of her, Bill Murray gave the performance of a lifetime, and Scarlett Johanssen became a star.

Woulda:

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritú (21 Grams) will emerge as one of the most important directors of the decade, or at least the one most capable of depressing the hell out of you.

Shoulda:

There is no question in my mind that ROTK will reign victorious come Oscar night. Hollywood insiders have been preaching since The Fellowship of the Rings that the trilogy will be rewarded upon its conclusion. Imagine if it doesn’t; the backlash would be enormous. Expect costumed riots in the street and black-tied Price Waterhouse members thrown into Mount Doom (the Valley will suffice).

Coulda:

To be honest I enjoyed every film on the list, including the ship movie, omitting the horse movie. But I’ve been waiting three long years for it to be LOTR’s time for awards other than for effects, and I’m not going to wait till the prequel.

Woulda:

A certain horse movie could have made a very comfortable spot for American Splendor, The Triplets of Belleville, Finding Nemo, or City of God.